Ian, interest rates and housing may have slowed Collier County's population growth

Hurricane Ian slamming into the coast of Southwest Florida at the same time interest rates started climbing might have slowed population growth Collier County experienced between 2022 and 2023.

According to data released this month by the U.S. Census Bureau, Collier County’s population growth rate slowed to about two-thirds of what it was in years previous, though the region did continue to add residents from 2022 to 2023.

Per the Census Bureau, from July 2020 to July 2022, Collier County’s population grew by about 840 residents a month, for a total of 20,206 new residents, about 10,000 residents per year. From 2020 to 2021, the number of residents grew by 2.6%, and by 2.6% again the following year.

But from 2022 to 2023, Collier added just under 7,000 new residents through births and people moving to the area, or about 560 residents a month. That's a growth rate of just 1.7%.

As of July 2023, Collier's population stood at 404,310 residents; in July 2020, 377,310 called Collier home.

“There’s a myriad of circumstances” that contributed to the decrease in population growth, said Collier County Commissioner Bill McDaniel. “A portion of it had to do with Hurricane Ian. That certainly had a quell on people looking to pick up and move to Florida.”

However, he said, that’s not the only culprit.

Ian “coincided with interest rates starting to eke up in the latter part of ‘22 and ’23,” McDaniel continued. “We have had a housing affordability issue evidenced (in Collier) forever, and you combine that with an increase in interest rates, it starts to get even harder to afford a home."

From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed lifted its key short-term interest rate from near zero to a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% in order to curb inflation, which had ballooned to a 40-year high of up to 9.1% in June of 2022. Currently, inflation is running around 3% or slightly below, based on the two most popular measures.

Although Collier County is the second-richest in Florida, boasting a median income of $75,543, a median investment income of $196,655 and a median home value of $594,299, according to a 2023 study by financial technology company SmartAsset, many of its blue collar residents still struggle to afford the cost of a home.

And data by Zillow shows that the average cost of rent in Naples is 204% higher than the national average, sitting at $7,000 a month for a home, and $4,060 for an apartment or condo (at 163% higher than the national average).

“At the end of the day, I would guess that had as much to do with it (as Ian),” McDaniel said.

Like Collier, Lee continued to grow, but at a much slower rate, with its population growth rate dropping by nearly two-thirds.

More people moved to Florida in 2023

According to the news release by the census, approximately 96% of Florida’s 67 counties grew from 2022 to 2023. Just three counties lost net population during the same time period.

Florida had four of the five fastest-growing U.S. metro areas between 2022 and 2023: Wildwood-The Villages at 4.7%; Lakeland-Winter Haven at 3.8%; Ocala at 3.4%; and Port St. Lucie at 3.1%.

Additionally, data shows Polk, Pasco and Marion counties topped the charts for domestic net migration. Polk saw an additional 26,000 people move to the area, while Pasco and Marion grew by roughly 24,000 and 15,000 respectively.

In total numeric growth, three Florida metro areas placed in the top 10. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford placed fourth, adding 54,916 for a population of 2,817,933. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater was fifth, adding 51,622 people for a total of 3,342,963. And Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach came in 10th with 43,387 more people, bring its population to 6,183,199.

Paul Nutcher of the Lakeland Ledger and Paul Davidson of USA TODAY contributed to this article.